Download 55 Trends Now Shaping the Future of Terrorism by Marvin Cetron, Owen Davies PDF

By Marvin Cetron, Owen Davies

Preface
This learn should be seen as a reaction to a choice sounded through Dr. Thomas Mahnken on the Forces Transformation Chairs assembly in February 2007. Dr. Mahnken, Deputy Assistant Secretary of protection for coverage making plans, mentioned that the U.S. responds to shocks such a lot effectively while it has already well-known and replied to the tendencies from which they emerge. it truly is much less profitable whilst these tendencies have long past unidentified or whilst no powerful reaction to them has been fixed. One case the place the tendencies weren't well-known in time was once the terrorist assaults of September eleven, 2001. It hence turns into worthy, Dr. Mahnken concluded, to increase a method of picking traits and responding to them ahead of acute demanding situations emerge.

Forecasting overseas (FI) heartily agreed. FI is without doubt one of the world’s most well known futurist enterprises. It makes a speciality of the research of traits. To our wisdom, we have been the 1st such association to use development research to the matter of terrorism. We did so with enormous success.
FI started its paintings on terrorism in 1994, while it controlled the 4th Annual safety around the world fighting Terrorism convention for the Pentagon. Its convention document, Terror 2000: the long run Face of Terror, thoroughly estimated the increase of Muslim extremism as a resource of terror, the terrorists’ growing to be style for mass bloodletting, using coordinated assaults on far away pursuits, or even an attack at the Pentagon utilizing a hijacked aircraft (omitted on the request of the kingdom Department). due to the fact that then, FI has frequently studied terrorist concerns for either executive and personal industry.
In the present file, FI examines the way forward for overseas terrorism. during this attempt, it's been assisted by way of greater than fifty of the world’s most appropriate specialists within the fields of antiterrorism, intelligence, protection, and policing. This specialist panel integrated individuals of the intelligence neighborhood, experts from the U.S. executive and army, safety specialists, imagine tank staffers, forecasters, college professors, and native police officers. so much got here from the us, yet Australia, Canada, eire, New Zealand, Russia, and Switzerland additionally have been represented. numerous members selected to stay nameless, due to their delicate positions in executive and the army. One contributor is a personal citizen of whom we all know not anything, retailer that he spoke back to article we had released and supplied a few fascinating thoughts.

This typifies our method during this paintings. we've attempted to be inclusive, instead of unique. FI’s personal perspectives, and people of yes specialists, dominate the document, yet a few were included—often within the appendices—specifically simply because they diverge from the mainstream and may supply precious insights or novel principles that may now not come up from extra traditional resources. we have now attempted to overlook not anything that are supposed to at the very least be thought of. some of the rules provided the following should be obvious on the optimum degrees of government.

Key findings from our panel of specialists include:
International terrorism will develop as veterans of the Iraq battle go back to their local lands, educate • sympathizers within the strategies of terror, and unfolded around the world.

Among the Western lands, Britain and France (owing to their huge Muslim populations) and the • usa can be on the maximum chance of assault, in that order. additional assaults at the scale of September 11 are to be anticipated in all 3 international locations over the variety of 5 to 10 years.

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Extra resources for 55 Trends Now Shaping the Future of Terrorism

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This is unlikely, but the probable impact of such a conflict is so great that the possibility cannot be ignored. The spread of fundamentalist Muslim regimes with a grudge against the West also could keep OPEC oil out of the American market. If the United States loses access to Middle Eastern oil, it will buy even more from Canada and Venezuela, tap the Arctic National Wildlife Reserve, and develop the deepwater fields under the Gulf of Mexico much faster than expected. In a prolonged energy emergency, America also would be likely to develop its vast reserves of oil shale, which have long been economically viable at crude prices over $40 per barrel.

S. Food and Drug Administration will be required to improve screening of incoming food products. However, it will not receive adequate funding to do the job effectively. As prices fall to commodity levels and online stores can list virtually every product and brand in their industry without significant overhead, service is the only field left in which marketers on and off the Internet can compete effectively. Branded items with good reputations are even more important for developing repeat business.

Government probably will boost domestic oil production and refining to increase the reserve of gasoline and heating oil. This stockpile would be ready for immediate use in case of future price hikes. This will make it easier to negotiate with OPEC. A key step in controlling oil prices, and an indicator of Washington’s serious about doing so, would be development by the government of at least four new refineries around the country, probably for lease to commercial producers. We rate the odds at no more than 50:50.

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